As enterprises with regulatory concerns/mandates migrate to the Cloud (Private, Public, or Hybrid) compliance with regards to privacy and security will ether be barriers or demand enabling technologies.
Tricks like leveraging encryption of data at rest while keeping active keys elsewhere will allow immediate use of the IaaS platform’s compliance methods and limit the application’s need to make drastic changes in code to accommodate compliance monitoring logic.
I have a controversial view that the new SaaS adoption rates will be served more by focusing on user benefits VS “tech-selling” buzzwords. A practical example of this would be that I believe the growth in numbers of the “boomer” generation is going to drive more customers to the SaaS/IaaS platform providers. E.G., MyGait below offers not only a computer system tuned to older user needs (magnification, large keys, etc.) but also a service program and financing that essentially signs up the buyer to a SaaS model by selling features and benefits they need.
A combination of color coding and Input Method Editor (IME) options is perfectly suited for the older user in the US and international community.
A good working example of this is the lighting fast adoption rate in Mobile TelCo of the Windows Phone & Android applications.
When we look at the history of the PC industry, we see that while Moore’s Law is fantastic, it is always outpaced by consumer demand. Market expanding software solutions can be developed faster than hardware solutions to develop but are frequently performance constrained by the limits of running on general purpose processors. Eventually IHVs see a large enough market and have time for development of custom silicon to parallelize the process. This lag time between when the problem is first noticed and when it’s solved in silicon can be referred to as the “Wilson Gap” aphras coined by some Microsoft employees who worked with me and quoted my assessment as “Information consumer appetite/demand will always outpace CPU capability” which I stated in a meeting regarding complex computational transforms.
By doing a simple analysis of this “Wilson Gap” over a series of technologies we can see some very interesting patterns:
*Note: This illustration is based on 2011 estimates
The vertical axis represents the number of years a particular technology was on the market in software-only form before it was introduced in silicon as an ASIC (Application Specific Integrated Circuits). Based on this data I would like to postulate that companies like Microsoft & Google have direct bearing on these figures, and that in many cases they can significantly reduce the Wilson Gap. But first, let’s review the situation a little further.
How the SW Industry Fights the Wilson Gap
While the flexibility general purpose CPU offers imaginative engineers the ultimate design surface, it likewise has the inherent limitation that code must be reduced to a lowest common denominator, that being the CPU instruction set. Time and again, this limitation has caused a Wilson Gap in what consumers want and what the PC platform is able to inherently deliver.
For Many of Today’s Needs Moore’s Law is too Slow
As the previous graph illustrates, the Wilson Gap was a limiting factor in the potential market for specific technologies, when the CPU was not fast enough for the consumer demand of floating point operations. Likewise, at various times throughout PC history, the CPU has not kept up with demand for:
Digital Signal Processing (DSP)
SSL Processing (encompassing 3DES, RSA, AES)
Windows Media Encoding/Decoding
XML Parsing and Canonicalization
ASICs help reduce the Wilson Gap
When Moore’s Law is too slow we traditionally rely on ASICs to fill the Wilson Gap. In all of the examples above (Math Coprocessor, DSP, 3D, 3DES, RSA, MPG, etc…) we now have fairly low-cost ASICs that can solve the performance issue. Total time to solution and time to money are far too long for current industry economic conditions. These (ASIC) processors will typically accelerate a task, off-load a task or perform some combination of the two. But for the remainder of this paper we’ll use the term “accelerate” to include acceleration that encompasses CPU off-loading.
The Downside to ASIC Solutions
Unfortunately ASICs are inherently slow to market and are a very risky business proposition. For example, the typical ASIC takes 8 to 12 months to design, engineer and manufacture. Thus their target technologies must be under extremely high market demand before companies will make the bet and begin the technology development and manufacturing process. As a result, ASICs will always be well behind the curve of information consumer requirements served by cutting edge software.
Another difficulty faced in this market is that ASIC or Silicon Gate development is very complex, requiring knowledge of VHDL or Verilog. The efficient engineering of silicon gate-oriented solutions requires precision in defining the problem space and architecting the hardware solution. Both of these precise processes take a long time.
FPGAs further reduce the Wilson Gap
A newer approach to reducing the Wilson Gap that is gaining popularity is the use of Field Programmable Gate Arrays (or FPGAs). FPGAs provide an interim solution between ASICs and software running on a general purpose CPU. They allow developers to realign the silicon gates on a chip and achieve performance benefits on par with ASICs, while at the same time allowing the chip to be reconfigured with updated code or a completely different algorithm. Modern development tools are also coming on line that reduce the complexity of programming these chips by adding parallel extensions to the C language, and then compiling C code directly to Gate patterns. One of the most popular examples of this is Handel-C (out of Cambridge).
The Downside to FPGA Solutions
Typically FPGAs are 50% to 70% of the speed of an identical ASIC solution. However, FPGAs are more typically geared to parallelize algorithms and are configurable so as to received updates, and leverage a shorter development cycle (http://www.xilinx.com/products/virtex/asic/methodology.htm). These factors combine to extend the lifespan of a given FPGA-based solution further than an ASIC solution.
A Repeating Pattern
Looking at the market for hardware accelerators over the past 20 years we see a repeating pattern of:
First implemented on the general purpose CPU
Migrated to ASIC/DSP once the market is proven
Next the technology typically takes one of two paths:
The ASIC takes on a life of its own and continues to flourish (such as 3D graphics) outside of the CPU (or embedded back down on the standard motherboard)
The ASIC becomes obsolete as Moore’s Law brings the general purpose CPU up to par with the accelerator by the new including instructions required.
Now let’s examine two well known examples in the Windows space where the Wilson Gap has been clearly identified and hardware vendors are in the development cycle of building ASIC solutions to accelerate our bottlenecks.
Current Wilson Gaps
Our first example is in Windows Media 9 Decoding; ASIC hardware is on its way thanks to companies such as ATI, NVIDIA and others. This will allow the playback of HD-resolution content such as the new Terminator 2 WM9 DVD on slower performance systems. Another example here is in TCP Offload Engines (TOE); which have recently arrived on the scene. Due to the extensibility of both the Windows’ Media and Networking stacks, both of these technologies are fairly straightforward to implement.
Upcoming Wilson Gaps – Our Challenge
However, moving forward the industry faces other technologies which don’t have extensibility points for offloading or acceleration. This lack of extensibility has lead to duplication of effort across various product teams, but not duplication in a competitive sense (which is usually good), but more of a symbiotic duplication of effort, increasing the cost of maintenance and security.
An example of leveraging Cloud Services is to deploy an application that services the healthcare industry by ultilizing the Infrastructure as a Service(IaaS) model E.G., Azure:
To deploy a Cloud-based Azure Platform meeting HIPAA regulations, all application code segments must be designed using a web-services model where database elements and application code running in the cloud publish secure streams
Windows Azure allows an organization to create virtual machines (VMs) that run in Microsoft datacenters. Suppose the organization wants to use those VMs to run enterprise applications or other software that will be used by customers. We can create a SharePoint farm in the cloud, for example, or run HIIPA data management enterprise HITECH applications. To make life as easy as possible for our users, these applications would be accessible just as if they were running in an cost intensive local datacenter.
The Enterprise offering the Cloud Services must follow these five rules in order to stay comliant with HIIPA:
Social Media Marketing: Big corps will finally get serious because they’ll find a way to monetize the involvement with Social Media. So look for PR/Marketing plans to have integrated social media buys/plans
$3B annually is spent on Mobile ads but that is only 5%. Look for the trend setter to be advertising on tablets.
Enterprise Gamification across marketing platforms, enterprise employee training platforms and second-screen applications. In 2013 we will see enterprise gamification Surpass Consumer Gamification.
“So-Mofying”. Lots of VC money going into technology that makes enterprises more social & mobile. An inflection point will be created in the need to download these apps.
Mobile Retail: Technology drives in-store and out-of-store shopping experiences, in-store navigation experiences, and social and mobile sharing of products.
Set-Top Boxes In 2013: This technology goes through drastic changes. Content creator/owners and providers are try to increase engagement across channels and provide new UI application linkages to allow switching of context between VOD and programmed content.
My Conclusion on Si Architecture Trends and thier ecosystem impact
Today’s Si companies must track the key trends in Si technology development, assembly test, Nanotechnology, Cooling, Emerging Research, Virtualization, acceleration and Si Complex Architectures to help drive their product teams in close collaboration with other Si vendors to keep the enterprise in a thought leadership position contemporary with the Silicon Industry along with consumer demands.
This blog is intended to document key technology trends and issues I feel will have a major impact betwen now and 2035. The following areas will be covered: